Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#111
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.2#76
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 5.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.5 13.2
.500 or above 75.1% 81.5% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 81.8% 66.7%
Conference Champion 16.8% 19.8% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.8% 4.7%
First Four1.7% 1.9% 1.1%
First Round15.9% 18.8% 8.6%
Second Round4.3% 5.4% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 2.10.3 - 2.1
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.60.7 - 3.7
Quad 21.8 - 3.02.5 - 6.6
Quad 36.3 - 4.28.8 - 10.8
Quad 48.7 - 1.617.5 - 12.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 161   Indiana St. W 76-73 72%    
  Nov 10, 2018 27   @ Purdue L 69-78 14%    
  Nov 15, 2018 20   Virginia Tech L 72-82 18%    
  Nov 16, 2018 39   Alabama L 70-77 27%    
  Nov 18, 2018 175   Appalachian St. W 79-75 65%    
  Nov 24, 2018 196   Evansville W 70-64 77%    
  Dec 01, 2018 275   @ IUPUI W 75-65 71%    
  Dec 05, 2018 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-72 26%    
  Dec 09, 2018 196   @ Evansville W 70-64 60%    
  Dec 17, 2018 120   @ Valparaiso W 74-73 42%    
  Dec 20, 2018 305   Howard W 84-72 90%    
  Dec 29, 2018 351   Delaware St. W 80-60 97%    
  Jan 04, 2019 126   @ Toledo W 78-77 43%    
  Jan 08, 2019 135   Eastern Michigan W 69-68 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 142   Ohio W 78-76 67%    
  Jan 15, 2019 205   @ Bowling Green W 80-74 60%    
  Jan 19, 2019 219   @ Central Michigan W 79-72 63%    
  Jan 22, 2019 170   Miami (OH) W 73-69 72%    
  Jan 26, 2019 142   @ Ohio W 78-76 47%    
  Jan 29, 2019 65   @ Buffalo L 79-84 27%    
  Feb 02, 2019 159   Kent St. W 76-73 70%    
  Feb 05, 2019 186   @ Northern Illinois W 76-71 56%    
  Feb 09, 2019 211   Western Michigan W 78-71 79%    
  Feb 16, 2019 184   Akron W 76-71 72%    
  Feb 19, 2019 170   @ Miami (OH) W 73-69 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 219   Central Michigan W 79-72 79%    
  Feb 26, 2019 126   Toledo W 78-77 63%    
  Mar 02, 2019 211   @ Western Michigan W 78-71 61%    
  Mar 05, 2019 135   @ Eastern Michigan W 69-68 45%    
  Mar 08, 2019 186   Northern Illinois W 76-71 74%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 12.5 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.6 4.5 3.9 2.1 0.5 16.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.4 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.1 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 2.0 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.7 7.8 9.7 10.5 11.8 12.0 10.5 9.3 6.6 4.4 2.1 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 97.9% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 87.6% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
15-3 68.9% 4.5    3.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.9% 3.6    1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 11.0 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 94.6% 65.6% 29.0% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.2%
17-1 2.1% 83.8% 46.2% 37.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 69.9%
16-2 4.4% 64.7% 40.1% 24.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 41.0%
15-3 6.6% 41.7% 30.7% 11.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 15.8%
14-4 9.3% 26.3% 22.6% 3.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9 4.7%
13-5 10.5% 21.6% 20.2% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 8.2 1.7%
12-6 12.0% 12.2% 11.4% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 10.5 0.8%
11-7 11.8% 8.5% 8.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.8
10-8 10.5% 6.7% 6.7% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.8
9-9 9.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.2
8-10 7.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.6
7-11 5.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.7% 13.4% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 83.3 3.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 6.3 90.6 3.1